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Tuesday 12 June 2012

J factor and the journey to 2014

HYDERABAD

12th June 2012 08:12 AM


If the YSRC wins all 17 seats in Seemandhra its strength in the Assembly will rise to 19. With the support of  TRS (16)  it would then be in a position to move a no-trust motion against the Kiran Kumar Reddy government. The TDP will then be caught in a cleft stick. It may not support the motion, because that would amount to playing into Jagan’s hands. Supporting the Congress, and thereby propping its government, would be unthinkable. So the TDP would have to abstain, which would keep the Kiran Kumar Reddy government going.

If it succeeds in keeping its flock together, the Congress government will win the no-trust vote even if it wins not a single seat in Tuesday’s bypolls. However, the danger comes from potential J campers who may toy with the idea of switching loyalties, having watched the YSRC sweep the bypolls. Already two Congress MLAs have tendered their resignations to join the YSRC. If the more do so, there could be a stampede to the exits. Further, the presidential elections is coming up in July. YSRC MLAs and MPs are likely to vote against the UPA nominee. What if a certain number of Congress MLAs with Jagan sympathies declare that they too would vote against the UPA nominee? They would have to be disqualified, leading to another clutch of byelections further down the line.

Scenario 2:

YSRC WINS 10

If YSRC manages to win 10 seats in the bypolls, it may not be able to move a no-trust motion. Its strength in the Assembly will rise to only 13. Just one MLA is sufficient to give notice of a no-trust motion but when the notice comes up for voting on the floor of the Assembly, 10 per cent of the MLAs (29) would have to second it. If the YSRCP wins only ten seats, it may not try the no-trust motion manoeuvre. Even if it did as a propaganda exercise, the Congress government would be able to defeat it easily.

Scenario 3: YSRC WINS 6

If the YSRC wins six seats in the bypolls, the party’s strength would just be eight in the Assembly. It would have to try to unseat the Congress government by other means or sit tight until the 2014 general election. It may try to engineer further defections from the ruling party but its potential to do so would have diminished, not least because of the tribulations in store for Jagan in the CBI cases. In all likelihood in this scenario, the party will hunker down and build up its organisation in order to survive until 2014.

Scenario 4: YSRC WINS  3

If the YSRCP wins around three seats in the bypolls, the very existence of the party will be in trouble. With Jagan Mohan Reddy in jail, it could be difficult for his mother to run the party. The party has no strong organisational strength and has banked on the sympathy for Y S Rajasekhara Reddy. In such a situation, disintegration or survival as a rump party is a possible outcome.

Ramdev’s praise, Bayyaram MoU cancellation make Naidu smile

12th June 2012 08:47 AM

 One day before polling is to take place for one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly seats, Telugu Desam  president N.Chandrababu Naidu has got two reasons to smile: Yoga guru Baba Ramdev met him seeking support for the anti-corruption movement and the state government cancelled an agreement between the AP Mineral Development Corporation and Rakshana Steels, a firm allegedly promoted by YS Rajasekhara Reddy's son-in-law.

On Monday morning Baba Ramdev, as part of his anti-graft movement, called on Naidu at NTR Bhavan. It was the second time that the baba called on Naidu after launching the movement. In the evening the state government cancelled APMDC's deal with Rakshana Steels on Bayyaram iron ore mines in Khammam district.

Both the developments boosted the confidence of the TDP a day before the bypolls. Naidu's main election plank is Jagan's corruption. When Ramdev called on Naidu, the latter extended him full support and declared that the TDP would join the nation-wide anti-graft movement. The TDP has been demanding cancellation of the MoU between Rakshana steels and APMDC. Though, the Centre had cancelled the Bayyaram mine lease, the state did not do so till Sunday. In the run-up to the elections, the TDP cadre was expecting that the decision would boost its prospects in the elections. TD Parliamentary Party leader Nama Nageswara Rao was quick to demand in the evening that the Bayyaram issue also be included in CBI's probe into the disproportionate assets of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy.

After meeting Naidu, Ramdev heaped praise on him saying that the TDP chief was in politics with good intentions. Saying that everyone should join the fight against corruption and black money, he called for an effective Lok Pal in the country.

“There were no allegations against me though I had been in public service for the last 20 years. But, when I took up the anti-graft movement a plethora of allegations were levelled against me,'' Ramdev lamented.

TheYoga guru said several irregularities took place in the issuance of mining leases in the country.

While terming Baba Ramdev's fight as one for a "noble cause", the TDP chief said that he would also support activist Anna Hazare's fight against corruption and for an effective Lok Pal.

Meanwhile, NCP leader and former Lok Sabha speaker PA Sangma called on Naidu and sought TDP's support to him in the presidential election. Sangma told Naidu that Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa and Odisha chief minister Navin Patnaik were supporting his candidature. Sangma said a tribal should be made the next President. Though Sangma is projecting himself as a candidate, his party president Sharad Pawar has not supported his candidature and decided to abide by the collective decision of UPA. NCP is an ally of the Congress-led UPA.

Naidu is believed to have remained non-committal on support to Sangma, merely saying that the TDP Politburo would meet after the byelections to discuss the presidential election.

Sunday 10 June 2012

Head or tail, Dharmana family stands to gain

By VV Balakrishna - NARSANNAPET ( SRIKAKULAM )

10th June 2012 08:33 AM


Until a few days ago everyone had been betting only on the YSR Congress with a majority of voters predicting a one-sided match. But things have started changing gradually in the last few days. The Congress and even the Telugu Desam are gaining confidence day by day. The once-perceived one-sided match has now turned into a three-cornered contest in Narsannapet, which is 20 km away from its district headquarters town of Srikakulam.

Two Dharmana brothers are taking on the Telugu Desam to retain their family hold over the Assembly constituency. Dharmana Krishna Das, brother of minister Prasada Rao, had resigned as a Congress MLA and is seeking re-election on YSRCP ticket. His brother Ram Das is contesting the seat on Congress ticket. The minister, who is the third brother, is trying his best to defeat one brother and see that another (Ram Das) wins. For the brothers politics is thicker than blood. If the Congress candidate loses, it will prove costly for the minister as his stock will go down in the ruling party. Prasada Rao is a senior minister in the Kiran Kumar Reddy cabinet.

The TDP has lost the two previous elections here and can now bank on some anti-incumbency mood among the electorate. Party chief Chandrababu Naidu’s recent visits enthused the voters and filled the party cadre with new hope. “The Congress and the TDP have gained the lost ground in the last one week. Now, there is a real fight among the three parties,” says Lakshmi. She, however, declares that she will vote for the YSRCP whose candidate  Krishna Das has earned the goodwill of the people. “He is a man of the masses and is known for his helping nature,” says Sankar, a graduate from Devadi village.

The people of the constituency still cherish the memories of YS Rajasekhara Reddy and his governance. “All parties are putting up a spirited fight. We cannot say who will win this time. Yet, we will vote for YSRCP,” Kali, a middle- aged woman labourer, says. She has a reason for her resolve.

Her parents were sanctioned old-age pension and the family was allotted a house in the Indiramma Housing Colony during the YSR regime. “We had submitted several applications during TDP rule but to no avail. We are indebted to YS Rajasekhara Reddy and we will vote for the YSRCP,” Kali explains. But she doubts whether YSRCP can garner all the votes. “Buddi (liquor bottle) and Dabbu (money) will tilt the balance in the last minute,” she apprehends. But Sarojinamma, another voter, displays no such pessimism or fears. She strongly feels that the Jagan’s party will coast to victory. “Valla Nayana padayatrato kottuku vacchadu. Eeyana jailu nunchi kottuku vastadu (Rajasekhara Reddy won because of his padayatra. His son will sweep the polls because of his arrest), she said with a lot of confidence.

Striking a different tone, Sambasiva Rao, a Congress supporter, says: “I am a Congress worker. I had initially wanted to vote for the YSRCP but changed my mind. Victory of Jagan candidates will lead to political uncertainty and the government may fall. There are just two years for general elections. Till then the Congress government should survive because people will benefit from a stable government.”

Surprisingly, a majority of women voters are still favourable to the TDP notwithstanding the magic Jagan’s mother Vijayamma and sister Sharmila created during their election campaigning. The crowds were enchanted and mesmerised by the duo, especially Sharmila.

Veteran actress Kavita, who campaigned for the TDP, also pulled large crowds in an area inhabited by people who come easily under the spell of film glamour.

All said, women voters are divided among the TDP, Congress and YSRCP. “All are coming to us. And all of them are pulling heavy crowds. Liquor and money are also playing their part. We cannot say what the outcome will be,” says Satish, an unemployed youth.

Congress blunder boosts YSRC chances

 VV Balakrishna Express News Service - POLAVARAM (WG)

10th June 2012 11:26 AM

The strategic blunder committed by the ruling Congress in fielding its candidate is helping the YSR Congress Party in the Polavaram Assembly constituency which is reserved for Scheduled Tribes.

When compared to other constituencies in the two Godavari districts, the Jagan factor is uppermost here. Tribal  and backward class people, who benefited most during YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s regime under various welfare schemes including the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), are supporting YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. Tribal youths were chanting “Jagan”.

Kumar, a school student who works at a barber’s shop during holidays, says without mincing words: “All the elders in my family will vote for YSRCP.”.

Kona Reddy, a Koya, is another staunch supporter of Jagan. Says he: “I have been getting some work through NREGS. I owe it to YS Rajasekhara Reddy. I am thinking of supporting Jagan in the bypolls.” He thinks Jagan was jailed because he assured to implement the schemes of his father.

Though YSRCP has a clear edge here, it has is drawbacks too. Sitting MLA T.Balaraju has lost people’s confidence. “I had voted for Balaraju in the previous elections. He promised to construct houses and roads. When I  approached him, he wanted me to wait for some more time. I stopped visiting him,” complains Bhushanam.

They are many Congress supporters who wish to vote for Jagan. But, will they on the D-day? “You know better. It all depends on who pay how much,” says a tribal, who is unwilling to disclose his name. When he is told that the government and the Election Commission are doing all they can to stop money flow in the elections, he retorts: “There are thousands of voters. Will police be able to register cases against all of them? Distribution of money to voters is not uncommon in elections,” he argues.

By fielding a “weak” candidate, Nupa Parvati, on the recommendation of MP Kavuri Sambasiva Rao, the ruling party has pushed itself down to the third place, leaving the battleground to the YSRCP and TDP to fight it out. Peeved over the nomination of Parvati, a prominent Congress leader Karatam Rambabu, who wanted the Congress to field B Bojji Dora, is extending clandestine support to the YSRCP.

Another advantage to the YSRCP is that former TDP MLA Singam Dora too has joined it. He is expected to split TDP votes to some extent in favour of YSRCP. However, TDP’s Mudiyam Srinivas is giving a tough fight to YSRCP and is hoping for a split of votes between Congress and YSRCP. “Despite Singam Dora’s exit from the party, TDP’s vote bank is intact. No TDP voter will support YSRCP. The YSRCP will get only Congress votes. I am sure of TDP’s win,” says Subbarayudu, a fruit juice vendor. Though some sections of BCs have shifted their allegiance to theYSRCP, thel TDP still enjoys the traditional support from BCs.

All these political and numerical calculations may go wrong if money plays an influencing role in this byelection. “I will vote as per the directions given by our local leader,” says an aged person. Tribal people usually take collective decisions and are known for “kulam kattubatu”. The voting pattern will be decided by the “orders” given by the local tribal leaders in each tanda. It is up to the political parties how best they can influence the local leaders.

To sum up the situation,  the YSRCP seems to be racing ahead while the TDP following closely behind and the Congress lagging behind the two

Both YSRC, TDP bank on sympathy

By VV Balakrishna - PAYAKARAOPET

09th June 2012 09:29 AM


When I boarded a seven seater auto-rickshaw at Payakaraopet to reach Nakkapally, the fellow travellers were engaged in a political debate. Around 10 passengers, including women were discussing the pros and cons of TDP and YSRC candidates.

An aged person argued strongly that the TDP candidate would win and TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu was the only able leader available in the state. But, a youngster was bot happy with the observation.

He supports YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. The women in the auto too were divided between YSRC and TDP. Soon, the auto-rickshaw driver joined the debate turning his head back, ignoring that he was driving on the dangerous Kolkata highway.

He has decided to back the TDP this time, he said.  When tempers ran high, he was thoughtful enough to halt before a cold drinks shop and ordered 10 sachets of water for all the passengers. Then the debate turned towards the freebies.

The driver said ultimately money power will prevail in the election. As the passengers got water sachets free of cost, they all agreed with him. But a passenger complained: “Chengalodu (TDP’s Chengala Venkata Rao) did not spend a single rupee so far. A youth chipped in saying, “I have heard that the YSRC is promising Rs 1,000 per vote.”

However, sympathy factor has become crucial in Payakaraopet byelections, where YSRC and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) are engaged in a fierce battle, pushing the Congress nominee G Sumana to the third place.

A large number of weaker sections and minorities were showing sympathy towards Jagan as they got benefits under YS Rajaskhara Reddy rule. Sheik Salim, a tailor and Congress voter, has decided to support YSRC’s Golla Babu Rao this time.

“I do not like to see the face of Babu Rao. He is not efficient. I will vote for YSRC because of YSR and Jagan. Thanks to Rajasekhara Reddy, my two daughters got scholarship. I was unable to provide good education to them. I owe much to YSR and will show my gratitude towards his son,” Salim said.

Salim, however, admitted that it is not going to be easy for YSRC. "There is sympathy for Chengala Venkata Rao as he lost last election by a narrow margin. However, my late parents got old age pension during YSR regime. We have four votes in the family. We have decided to caste one for YSRC and the remaining three for TDP,” Brahman, a Viswa Brahmin, said

Payakaraopet is an SC reserved segment. Both YSRC and Congress fielded Malas, while the TDP fielded a Madiga leader. TDP hopes to get majority SC votes as Congress and YSRC will divide Mala votes between them.

“Around 90 percent of Congress voters shifted their loyalty to YSRC. But, there is not much erosion in TDP vote bank in my village,” said Siva, an ITI student from Pedadoddigallu village. Siva’s family shifted to YSRC from Congress Saidulu, a daily worker, believed strongly that Jagan will implement YSR’s schemes.  “The Arogyasri helped my family.

After the death of YSR, the Arogyasri too died,” he said. Choppa Lakshmi has been a supporter of TDP and says she will remain so. While, YSRC pins hopes on the impact of Vijayamma and Sharmila’s recent road-show, the TDP is expecting division of Congress votes would help the party. “PRP damaged our prospects in 2009.

This time the YSRC would play a similar role in spoiling the prospects of Congress,” TDP worker Nova Raju said. Like in other segments of coastal Andhra, Payakaraopet voters too are expecting good flow of money on the D-day.

“I will demand Rs 1 lakh.  I have 10 votes in my family. There is a talk of a political party distributing Rs 5,000 per vote. I am demanding just double, nothing more,” a sweeper at a hotel was heard telling the owner.

FARMERS WORRIED OVER LOSING LAND

Farmers of S Narasapuram who lost their lands to a private drug firm, say firmly that they would vote for TDP as both the Congress and YSRC were responsible for their misery. The talk of PCPIR corridor and the fear of more farmers losing lands along the coastline of Nakkapally brought unity among farmers and also brought them behind TDP, which is opposing land acquisition.

ANOTHER SYMPATHY FACTOR

TDP too is banking on sympathy factor. Chengala Venkata Rao, who is popular among masses, lost in 2009 elections by just 600 votes. Since its inception, TDP never lost Payakaraopet seat, not even in 2004. “If TDP loses in Payakaraopet, it will not win any seat in the state.  TDP’s cadre is intact in the segment,” a TDP worker Jogulu said.

Money and memory of YSR key factors in Narsapur constituency

V V Balakrishna Express News Service - NARSAPUR

08th June 2012 08:52 AM

The talk is about money in Narsapur with five days to go to the byelections. The sight of hundreds of CRPF personnel getting off their buses triggers hushed conversations that the Kiran Reddy government is doing its utmost to thwart the YSRC by cutting off the money supply lines. A few yards from the town’s main bus terminus, fruit vendors discuss how much a vote might fetch on June 12. Local policemen canvass the populace with handheld mikes, and imploring voters not to fall prey to money, liquor or other inducements.

But everyone’s got money, and it’s hard to tell which way this three-cornered contest is going. “People go in large numbers to all election meetings. They pay Rs 100 per head. But a large crowd is not a sign of victory,” says Prasada Rao, a voter from Mamidipalli. Some say it’s a keen contest between the much-travelled Kottapalli Subbarayudu of the Congress and M Prasada Raju of the YSRC. Some tip the TDP as a dark horse.

The YSRCP candidate is a Raju, and the Congress and TDP contestants are both Kapus, a numerically large community with strong influence on the lower socioeconomic groups. With support lines not evident, observers say there is a silent majority building up for Jagan Mohan Reddy’s party.

“There is a silent wave in favour of YSRC,” says voter Varaprasad of Mogalturu. Daily workers, Scheduled Castes and some sections of the backward classes, mainly beneficiaries of Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s welfare schemes are said to constitute this silent majority.

You get to hear plenty of YSR stories. “I came to have an own house when YSR was chief minister. His government did not even force me to pay my dues,” said Tirumal Rao, a mutha worker. A tea stall owner says: “I got several benefits from the YSR government. Annam tinevaadu yevaraina Jagan ke vote veyyali. (Whoever has a meal to eat must remember YSR).”

However, the situation is not so easy for YSR’s son’s party. There are now signs here that support for Jagan has built up to a tidal wave. Naraspur constituency being in equal parts urban and rural, the Congress and TDP set store by the middle classes living in the town. Educated people and businessmen see Jagan’s doings in the shadow of YSR differently. Corruption is an issue for them. “Didn’t Congress leaders know when Jagan was benefiting from the YSR government?. We should punish both the YSRC and the Congress,” says a student, K Nagender.

As both the Congress and TDP have fielded Kapus, it is a big question who will get the bulk of support from within that caste. As of now Subbarayudu seems to be ahead, but then the TDP can count on the support of the backward classes such as the Agnikula Kshatriyas, Setti Balijas and others. “Kapus may vote en mass for Kottapalli, but the BCs will do so for the TDP,” said cobbler Obulesu.

It all depends on which way the Kapu vote goes. The community has always tried to keep its grip on the constituency by voting en bloc. Due to this factor, Subbarayudu has never lost an election, except when he contested on a PRP ticket in 2009. Even during the riots triggered by the murder of Vangaveeti Ranga, he won on a TDP ticket. But then, this segment has no history of a Kapu leader winning on a Congress ticket since 1983.

Voters here admit that the YSRC candidate has support among the SCs, BCs and other weaker sections. Surprisingly, however, most of the voters from the lower strata are yet to decide their choice.

“Let us see who will distribute money. Tell me, if one party pays you Rs 600, another party Rs 700 and a third Rs 1,000, who will you vote for?” says a petty vendor when asked about his choice. Asked what would be the fate of all these calculation if the government succeeds in checking the flow of money on polling day, he says the Congress and the TDP would then be able to get their traditional votes.

Some voters expressed disappointment that Jagan is in jail. They had been expecting money to flow like water in the runup to the election. Some voters feel that there is no great leadership in the YSRC or the Congress, and only Chandrababu Naidu has the smarts to run a government.

Despite Y S Vijayamma’s campaign here, the YSRC has gained no clear edge over other its two rivals. Asked about this, autorickshaw driver Raju, a fan of Jagan, retorted that might be said about Kiran Kumar Reddy and Chandrababu Naidu as well. Both toured the constituency, and little good did it do for their parties.

Sir, which way to sympathy vote?

By V V Balakrishna - RAMACHANDRAPURAM

7th June 2012 08:14 AM

This town in the vicinity of Draksharamam is in the midst of the summer rush of pilgrims. Most visitors ask for directions to the Pancharama and Manikyamba temples, but this season there’s been an influx of political animals who seek to know which way the Jagan sympahy wave lies. This latter question invariably stumps the locals.

There are three main contenders in the fray, two Kapus -- Thota Trimurtulu of the Congresss and Chikkala Ramachandra Rao of the TDP -- and one Setti Balija, Pilli Subhas Chandra Bose of the YSR Congress (YSRC), the incumbent. The winner is likely to be the one who successfully taps the 35,000 Dalit voters in the constituency. So it’s no surprise that a 16-year-old incident is being dredged up to gain the sympathies of the Scheduled Caste voters.

Talk in the streets is that Trimurtulu is a nice man. But back in 1996, he allegedly got two young Dalit men forcibly tonsured to humiliate them.

The incident became a huge controversy then with Dalit activists raising a ruckus and giving it a name. Locally it is remembered as the Shiro Mundanam Case. In the present interplay between the three candidates, the Dalit vote is crucial, and Trimurtulu’s adversaries are enjoying telling the story again.

As per conventional wisdom, Dalits here are voters of the Congress, so Trimurtulu is expected to draw much from that vote bank.

But then Subhas Chandra Bose, one of the most loyal of Jagan’s apostles, is happy to narrate the Shiro Mundanam Case to whoever will listen, while also hoping that his two Kapu rivals will split their base vote and yield the edge to him. Typical electoral arithmetic.

At the entrance of the Pancharama temple, Sattibabu sits at his post as the custodian of the footwear. A Madiga and a Christian, he is the kind of voter whom the pundits expect to plump for Jagan Mohan Reddy’s party.

With one ear cricked to a passing campaign vehicle loudly extolling the virtues of Bose, he certifies that this is going to be a tight fight between YSRC and the Congress.

“Trimurtulu has always been with us. And Bose was not available to ordinary people and he did nothing for us in the last three years,” he complains.

He has no sympathy for Jagan, jail or no jail. “God will decide the fate of such people,” Sattibabu says and declares that he will vote Congress as always.

Mention of the sympathy vote is enough to divide any group of Ramachandrapuris down the middle. The ‘there is’ group and the ‘there isn’t’ group. Venkobu, a petty businessman, considers the question a long time and says there is indeed such a wave.

The arrest was vindictive, so he will vote for poor Jagan. Overhearing this, door-todorr cloth vendor Srinivas unburdens himself of his wares and joins issue: “Jagan is getting what he deserves. I will support the Congress.”

Taking her mind off her soft drink kiosk, dowager Srilakshmi declares, “No one is honest in politics. Jagan is in the opposition, so the ruling party put him behind bars. If the Congress loses power, someone will put them in jail too.”

As for herself, she likes Timurthulu and will vote for him. “Trimurtulu is always available to us. Bose did nothing even for people of his own caste,” she says.

Farmer Srinivasa Rao pipes up and says only the rich and the educated would consider corruption as an issue and vote accordingly. But Ramachandrapuris as pragmatic people, and would very likely vote for Trimurtulu be cause he’s in the ruling party and would be able to get some work done. What’s a vote to Jagan except a brownie point made.

So where’s the TDP man? Chikkala Ramachandra Rao, acknowledged to be a nice man, comes distinctly third in the mindspace of Ramachandrapuram. “He is a good person. But he is an outsider to us,” said Raiv, a student, alsmost apologetically.

Corruption is far or high places tends to be an abstract issue in towns like Ramachandrapuram. So also the travails of a rich man like Jagan in prison.His mother and sister were here to address an audience that filled the balconies overlooking the town square, but it was an audience of gawkers rather than an impassioned mob. Ramachandrapuram is not a drought-affected area, so there’s work to be done and the concerns are pragmatic. Samuel, a labourer, encapsulated the question in the mind of most voters here: “He has an enormous following among the SCs here. But is he the man his father was?”

Double martyr Surekha learns the difference between J and T in Parkal

By V V Balakrishna | ENS - PARKAL

4th June 2012 08:12 AM

  Under a 12 noon sun, Konda Surekha is beating down on the voters of Vellampalli in Parkal Constituency in Warangal district. She’s in the shade of an ancient banyan and the audience of a handful of women AWOL from NREGA work squat under the sun, shielding their faces and squinting up at the speaker.

The YSR Congress leader is explaining why she is a candidate for the only overtly integrationist party in a byelection in this heartland of the Telangana movement. She’s making a fine distinction: “I resigned as minister for the sake of Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy. But I resigned as an MLA for the sake of Telangana,” she says. In other words, in a state where repeated byelections have been caused by MLAs committing hara-kiri for sundry causes, she’s a martyr twice over.

The youth of this part of Warangal district tend to be brusque in their declaration of faith in the Telangana. So Surekha cuts no ice with Rajesh, a YSRC worker from Damera village who was at hand to do errands at the banyan tree meeting. “Surekha resigned for the sake of Jagan,” declares the 25-year-old man, a farmhand at other times. “She has nothing to do with Telangana.”

Talk of Telangana is everywhere in Parkal, including among the youth who have jumped onto the Jagan bandwagon. But within the YSRC you’ve got to weigh your words, and Rajesh is loath to giving his full name. “I work for the YSRC. But I’ll vote for the TRS,” he signs off.

Surekha’s double martyrdom is not working in Parkal. To her, she’s the frontrunner in the bypoll, but perception beyond the shade of the banyan tree is different - as different as J is to T.

Twenty-four-hour television has made images from far and wide accessible in the remotest of villages, and a few images of Surekha have left an impress in the minds of the voters here. One is of her throwing stones at Telangana supporters from platform no. 1 of the Mahbubabad railway station when they rioted to prevent Jagan Mohan Reddy’s Odarpu Yatra in this very district. Another is of her handing an affectionate glass of lemon juice to Y S Vijayamma to break her recent protest fast. “Wasn’t she the one who gave lemon juice to Vijayamma? Didn’t she do it?” argues a student on the sidelines.

Parkal is the odd one out of the 18 Assembly -- and one Lok Sabha -- byelections going to the vote on June 12. It’s the only one in Telangana and it is taking place in the neighbourhood of the Mahbubabad mayhem to decide the fate of the star actor of that drama. Surekha is one of only a few Telangana legislators or political busybodies who have declared themselves for Jagan Mohan Reddy. Many other J campers are thought to lurk in the shadows but in this hotbed of the separatist sentiment, Jagan is a name you take in whispers.

Of the baker’s dozen constituencies going to the polls, this is the only one where the J factor is far behind the T factor. Echoes of this are to be had in the spiel spewed by all the candidates, including Surekha herself. So in this town that has no time for polite salutations, you are given an impatient brushoff if you ask a stupid question like will Jagan in jail make a difference to the vote.

“What do you expect? You think they’ll give you a prize for pocketing someone’s money,” retorts Sammaiah, an aged farmer, as we walk along a dirt track leading to Nagaram village. A self-help worker walking along adds her bit: “All others who loot public money will meet the same fate ultimately.”

During the YSR years, Surekha was the smart woman of Warangal politics. Her husband Konda Murali grew from local importance/infamy in Geesukonda to become a member of the Jagan cabal operating around the late chief minister, and going on to bigger things in Sayampet, Hanmakonda, Warangal and then Hyderabad. Yet, Murali’s past in the nether zones continues to colour popular perception of them.

Says Sankar a small hotel keeper in Geesukonda, “This is the first time that the Konda couple are facing rough weather for their goondaism.” But then Surekha has the Robin Hood story. “Tell me, tell me if this isn’t true,” she gees up the crowd in Vellampalli. “If there’s a marriage or a death in a family, we give `5,000 for the expenses. We provide free education to poor students. We donated funds to build temples. Is that goondaism? Tell me?”

How the Parties Stand

Parakal is also different for another reason. The hierarchy of contenders here does not follow the same pattern as in the coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema byelections. There it’s a triangular dog fight among the YSRC, the Congress and the TDP. Here, the TRS is top dog followed by the BJP and Surekha representing YSRC. The Congress and the TDP bring up the rear.

The BJP has jumped into the fray encouraged by its David v Goliath success in the Mahbubnagar byelection but with the TRS winning the endorsement of the Telangana Joint Action Committee (TJAC), its candidate is nowhere in the picture in Parakal.

Although the TJAC decided to support the TRS after much dillydallying, it has counted for the Pink Party. While youth seem to flock to Surekha’s campaign activities, they declare themselves as YSRCP workers and TRS voters. The surprising fact is that even strong supporters of the TRS admit that the TDP has a strong vote bank here and that is is intact. Most of the voters still believe that TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu has been fighting on real issues. They remember the development that took place during his nine-year rule. If the TDP works hard, it may compete with the YSRC for second place. The Congress vote bank seems to have migrated en masse to YSRC with Surekha. Congress govt may have to be satisfied with the fourth position at best, pushing the BJP to fifth place.