J factor and the journey to 2014

HYDERABAD

12th June 2012 08:12 AM


If the YSRC wins all 17 seats in Seemandhra its strength in the Assembly will rise to 19. With the support of  TRS (16)  it would then be in a position to move a no-trust motion against the Kiran Kumar Reddy government. The TDP will then be caught in a cleft stick. It may not support the motion, because that would amount to playing into Jagan’s hands. Supporting the Congress, and thereby propping its government, would be unthinkable. So the TDP would have to abstain, which would keep the Kiran Kumar Reddy government going.

If it succeeds in keeping its flock together, the Congress government will win the no-trust vote even if it wins not a single seat in Tuesday’s bypolls. However, the danger comes from potential J campers who may toy with the idea of switching loyalties, having watched the YSRC sweep the bypolls. Already two Congress MLAs have tendered their resignations to join the YSRC. If the more do so, there could be a stampede to the exits. Further, the presidential elections is coming up in July. YSRC MLAs and MPs are likely to vote against the UPA nominee. What if a certain number of Congress MLAs with Jagan sympathies declare that they too would vote against the UPA nominee? They would have to be disqualified, leading to another clutch of byelections further down the line.

Scenario 2:

YSRC WINS 10

If YSRC manages to win 10 seats in the bypolls, it may not be able to move a no-trust motion. Its strength in the Assembly will rise to only 13. Just one MLA is sufficient to give notice of a no-trust motion but when the notice comes up for voting on the floor of the Assembly, 10 per cent of the MLAs (29) would have to second it. If the YSRCP wins only ten seats, it may not try the no-trust motion manoeuvre. Even if it did as a propaganda exercise, the Congress government would be able to defeat it easily.

Scenario 3: YSRC WINS 6

If the YSRC wins six seats in the bypolls, the party’s strength would just be eight in the Assembly. It would have to try to unseat the Congress government by other means or sit tight until the 2014 general election. It may try to engineer further defections from the ruling party but its potential to do so would have diminished, not least because of the tribulations in store for Jagan in the CBI cases. In all likelihood in this scenario, the party will hunker down and build up its organisation in order to survive until 2014.

Scenario 4: YSRC WINS  3

If the YSRCP wins around three seats in the bypolls, the very existence of the party will be in trouble. With Jagan Mohan Reddy in jail, it could be difficult for his mother to run the party. The party has no strong organisational strength and has banked on the sympathy for Y S Rajasekhara Reddy. In such a situation, disintegration or survival as a rump party is a possible outcome.